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November 3, 2012 by
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  1. Marcel Baumgartner on Tue, 6th Nov 2012 11:41 am
  2. Hello Sandro,

    great that you review this book here. I have very good memories reading it during my summer vacation on the Ile de RĂ© on the Atlantic Coast of France. I was looking at the waves and tides, and tides are predictable. The subway uncertainty (or Mediocristan, Taleb’s name) vs. the Coconut uncertanity (Extremistan). The best is shown at the end: the 6 truths of forecasting:

    1. The future is never exactly like the past.
    2. “Complex” statistical models fit past data well but don’t necessarily predict the future.
    3. “Simple” models don’t necessarily fit past data well but predict the future better than complex models.
    4. Both statistical models and people have been unable to capture the full extent of future uncertainty and been surprised by large forecasting errors and events they did not consider.
    5. Expert judgment is typically inferior to simple statistical models.
    6. Averaging (whether of models or expert opinions) usually improves forecasting accuracy.

    Now you need to read “Signal to Noise” by Nate Silver !

    Marcel

  3. Sandro Saitta on Thu, 29th Nov 2012 2:42 pm
  4. Thanks for your comment Marcel. I have juste read “Future Ready” by Morlidge and Player (one of your suggestions)…very nice!

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